新冠疫情不仅严重危害人类的生命，同时也给全球企业的生存造成严重的威胁。在澳洲本地企业由于外部原因而备受煎熬之时，外国投资者也冒着更大风险，包括被视为投机取巧者。
The COVID-19 pandemic is taking a heavy toll on human lives and threatens business survival worldwide. Foreign investors incur additional risks including being seen as opportunistic when local businesses are suffering through no fault of their own.
疫情期间，人们对外国投资者普遍抱有负面情绪，此时外来者劣势变得更加突出。封闭边界和停飞航班等疫情缓解措施造成前所未有的“全球解体”，并对个人、公司、行业和国家等产生远大影响。
The liability of foreignness becomes more prominent during the crisis where negative public sentiment over foreign investors prevails. Pandemic fallouts, such as closed borders and grounded flights, create an unprecedented “global disintegration” and has extensive impact on individuals, firms, industries and countries alike.疫情期间的外商投资
Foreign investment during the pandemic
在疫情爆发之后，外国投资者可能会目睹更多的企业和资产出售。虽然现金富足的企业可进行更多交易，但同时也可能面临主权财富基金和私募股权投资所带来的更加激烈的竞争。由于谈判和交易方面陷入困境，那些无望看到疫后复苏迹象且需要优先考虑现有投资组合稳定性的企业们可能不得不退出现有的并购交易。
Foreign investors are likely to witness more businesses and assets for sale in the in the wake of the pandemic. While some firms sitting on abundant cash enjoy access to more deals, they may face increasing competition from sovereign wealth funds and private equities. Some firms may have to withdraw from existing mergers and acquisitions (M&As) due to difficulties in negotiations and transactions, especially those from countries showing no sign of recovery from the pandemic, as well as the ones needing to prioritize the stability of existing portfolios.对于东道国的被投资者而言，疫情可能会让依靠并购生存的企业谈判的处境变得更加严峻。如果遭受股市动荡，企业的估值将进一步缩水，企业寻求股东支持的难度也随之增加。相比之下，经历市场需求快速反弹以及能够迅速转型的企业所面临的谈判处境则不那般严峻。商业周期较长和更多依赖年金收入的企业可能会有一定的缓冲时间。而采取定价调整措施等替代解决方案的企业将以更灵活的方式达成交易。知识产权、人才和利基资产等议价筹码将给拥有此类资产的企业带来助益。
For host country investees, the pandemic may aggravate the bargaining position of firms relying on M&A to survive. Firms suffering from turmoil in the stock market would face more discounted valuations and difficulties in gaining support from shareholders. In contrast, firms experiencing a quick rebound in market demand and those who can transform quickly would have less trouble bargaining. Firms enjoying a longer business cycle and relying more on annuity income are likely to have time to buffer. Firms with the leeway of alternative solutions, such as pricing adjustments, would have more flexibility to land a deal. Bargaining chips such as intellectual property rights, talents and niche assets will help those firms in possession of such.对于投资者和被投资者而言，外商投资交易的谈判和实施可能需要更长的时间。为重新计算财务预测，他们需要摆脱历史财务信息和业务模型假设。他们也无法进行面对面会谈，这将导致他们的谈判进展缓慢。由于国际旅行暂时停止，因此相关的尽职调查也将推迟。政府机构停止办公，这将导致公证和文件备案程序停止。在发生不可抗力事件的情况下，他们需重新协商相关条款，设计保险的范围，因此他们需要积极主动地制定更灵活性、的时间表和相关计划。
For both investors and investees, the negotiation and implementation of a foreign investment deal are likely to take longer. Re-calculations of financial projections need to go beyond historical financial information and business model assumptions. Cancellations of face-to-face meetings slow down negotiations. Pauses in international travel delay due diligence. Closures of government agencies stop notarization and documentation procedures. Re-negotiations of terms where Force Majeure conditions occur, require a more flexible timeline. Re-designs of insurance coverage need more proactive planning.疫情结束后的外商投资
Foreign investment beyond the pandemic
疫情结束后，外国投资者的外商投资谈判或交易仍将面临各种不确定性。出于对国家利益和公众情绪的关注，几乎在一夜之间，各国政府均针对外商投资颁布并实施新规定。因此，外国投资者正面临更多新的门槛以及繁锁公事程序带来的障碍。除此之外，外国投资者还需要解决员工远程办公带来的管理难题。正式和非正式制度的某些变化将来可能会成为“新常态”。
Foreign investors will continue to face uncertainties in the process of negotiation or transaction of foreign investments beyond the pandemic. Out of concerns over national interests and public sentiments, governments have promulgated and implemented new regulations on foreign investment overnight. As a result, foreign investors face more barriers from new red tape or thresholds. Besides, foreign investors also face challenges from managing employees working remotely. Some of the changes in formal and informal institutions are likely to become the “new normal” in the future.各个层面的变化 （Levels of changes）
| 对外国投资者的影响 （Impact on foreign investors） | 示例（Examples） |
国家层面 Country – level | 国际化进程进展缓慢 Slowed internationalisation process | 疫情期间，澳大利亚政府将所有外商投资纳入审查范围内，并延长并购申请的截止日期。 Australian government included all foreign investments under review and extended the application deadlines for M&As during the pandemic. |
| 外来者劣势增加 Increased liability of foreignness | 疫情期间，印度政府修改外商直接投资政策，要求邻国进行的所有投资均需接受审批。 Indian government revised FDI policy during the pandemic, requiring investment from all neighbouring countries to seek approval. |
| 市场准入壁垒增加 Raised barrier for market entry | 疫情期间，日本政府制定关于防止外国对医药行业进行投资的计划。 Japanese government formed plans to prevent foreign investment in medicine during the pandemic. |
| 竞争优势减弱 Less competitive advantage | 法国政府向国内龙头企业提供救助资金；日本政府向本地企业提供特别贷款和担保。 French government provided bailout funds to national champion firms; Japanese government provided special loans and guarantees to local firms. |
| 议价能力降低 Reduced bargaining power | 加拿大政府推出关于减少裁员几率的措施，可能会阻止在并购期间裁员。 Canadian government released measures to reduce possible layoffs, likely to discourage redundancy from restructuring during M&As. |
行业层面 Industry – level | 市场准入壁垒增加 Raised barrier for market entry | 马来西亚政府促进本地航空公司之间的合并，以巩固资产负债表、共享资源并重组业务。 Malaysian government promoted mergers among local airlines to consolidate balance sheets, share resources and reorganise operations. |
| 被迫选择搬迁 Forced re-location choice | 疫情期间，由于供应链中断，日本政府向日本企业提供财政支持，鼓励其将海外生产线转回国内。 Japan government earmarked financial support during the pandemic for Japanese firms to shift overseas production lines back home due to the disruption in the supply chain. |
公司层面 Firm – level | 国际化进程进展缓慢 Slowed internationalisation process | 更改合同范本（例如重新设计重大不利变动条款，以反映和改善缔约方之间的风险分担）。 Changes in boilerplates of contracts (e.g. re-design the material adverse change clause to reflect and ameliorate risk allocations between signing parties). |
个人层面 Individual – level | 员工之间的身体和心理距离增加 Increased physical and psychological distance among employees | 长时间在家工作将成为一种“办公文化”（例如Facebook等）。 Permanently work from home would become an “office culture” (e.g. Facebook). |
实体边界的无限期关闭将促使外国投资者重新考虑是否需要开展纵向一体化以控制供应和分销网络。如今，随着支持国家利益的情绪的势头正猛，对全球价值链（GVC）中各参与者的相对优势的假设受到质疑。随着技术的发展和远程办公趋势的形成，一些制造商已经开始将其生产搬回至本国。
The indefinite closure of physical borders will push foreign investors to re-consider vertical integration to control supply and distribution networks. The assumptions of comparative advantages of players within global value chains (GVCs) are challenged now that sentiments of national interests are gaining momentum. With the assistance of technology and the trend of remote working, some manufacturers have started to backshore production to home country.外商投资，是敌还是友？
Foreign investment, friend or foe?
笔者已确定东道国将外国投资者视为不受欢迎的敌人的五个诱因：投机取巧的海外买家掠夺存在流动性问题和价值被低估的股票的公司，或者买家通过减员取得对陷入困境的公司的议价优势；投资者希望通过购买和整合以前的竞争对手以提高市场支配力；投资者并未向目标公司提供长期的业务解决方案；如果拟定的竞争对手整合成本很高，将会使现有员工出现冗余。最后的诱因是，东道国政府认为外国投资者会对其国内产业中的重大本地企业构成威胁。
I have identified five triggers for host countries to treat foreign investors as unwelcome foes: opportunistic buyers preying on firms with liquidity issues and undervalued stocks, or a buyer pushing for better bargains against distressed firms through attrition: investors aiming to increase market power by purchasing and integrating erstwhile competitors: offers with no long-term business solutions for the targeted firm: if the proposal came with a high integration cost of making existing employees redundant. And finally, those considered by the host government to be a threat to key local players in domestic industry.如果外国投资者能够提供以下至少一项内容，则其获得友好接待的机会将会增加：关键生命线基金，使公司能够保留关键资产和人才；转型和员工发展解决方案；或者能够创造供应链协同效应、巩固和多样化生产线和消费市场。
Foreign investors increase their chances of a friendly reception if they are able to offer at least one of the following: critical lifeline funds, enabling firms to keep key assets and talents: solutions for transformation and employee development: or if they can create supply chain synergies, consolidating and diversifying production lines and consumer markets.新冠疫情给外国投资者带来多层次的不确定性，也对外国投资者的交易过程带来各种不可预见的情况。虽然封锁措施是临时举措，但体制变革的影响将长久持续。当一切尘埃落定之后，一些外国投资者可能会发现自身所处的全球价值链已全然改观。
The pandemic creates uncertainties interplaying at multiple levels for foreign investors. It poses an unforeseen circumstance for foreign investors' deal making process. Lockdown measures are temporary, yet the impact of institutional changes will last. When the dust settles, some foreign investors may find the global value chain where they sit is permanently changed.
